Inside Track May 2021

A synchronized global recovery is in the making; much stronger than anticipated a few months ago. This year, barring the emergence of new ‘vaccine-resistant’ COVID-19 variants, the IMF forecasts the global economy to grow by 6% and 4.4% next year. Consumers will propel much of this growth. Since the pandemic started, they have amassed globally…

Inside Track February 2021

Virus variants are stealing a march on vaccination efforts. Linear thinking will always fail to pick up the financial (and other) impact of macro events. With inequality firmly on policy makers’ radars, the value of social capital is being increasingly recognised. Investors and financial institutions are now recognising climate risk. For value creation don’t underestimate…

Inside Track January 2021

Greater divergence – social, economic, (geo)political, and generational – will characterise our world in 2021. Technology deployed to sustainable ends and as an economic stimulant is a reason for optimism. Investment flowing towards renewables and projects safeguarding natural capital could be a win-win for the environment and employment. 2021 will be a year of increasing…

Inside Track July 2020

A disconcerting dissonance exists between economists regarding recovery prospects. On the sell-side, a large majority believe that a V-shaped recovery is in the offing. Almost no independent economist or academic thinks this is possible. A majority of that group sees a steep drop followed by a rapid partial recovery then followed by a long period of…